Demand forecasts are one of the most critical methodological stages in investment projects, as they determine the design of the project and the capacity of the infrastructure to recover the amounts invested.
In this context, the project “Demand Forecast for the Peruvian National Port System” formed part of the objective of the National Port Development Plan. Said plan is an instrument aimed at modernizing and developing the port system by implementing certain investment projects. To that end, the demand forecasts for port traffic were produced in order to determine and demonstrate the technical, economic and financial viability of the plan.
The study of the demand was based on a detailed characterization of the flows currently handled in each port of the national port system, taking into account the type and form of the goods. By studying the past evolution of the traffic by means of econometric time-series techniques, an initial result of the future traffic forecast was obtained. This was checked with the information provided by the main actors in the country’s export and import sectors, as well as with the results of the macroeconomic analysis carried out. For the specific case of transit traffic, the potential to attract this traffic was analysed, as well as the possibility of each port becoming a hub port. For loading and unloading traffic, the hinterland of those flows was estimated. The last part of the study was an estimate of passenger demand in Peruvian ports.