Fundación Valenciaport

In July 2025, the Valencia Containerised Freight Index (VCFI) recorded a slight decline of 1.04%, standing at 2,150.08 points. Since the series began in 2018, the index has accumulated an increase of 115.01%. This decline was also reflected in some of the main markets, such as the Western Mediterranean, which fell by 2.85% to 2,626.60 points (with a cumulative increase of 162.66%), and the Far East, which fell by 1.87% to 1,979.96 points, although it still maintains a growth of 98.00% compared to the base value.

In terms of global trade indicators, the RWI/ISL container port movement index remained virtually unchanged in June, with a seasonally adjusted reading of 136.5 points compared to 136.4 the previous month. This stability confirms the persistent weakness in international trade flows, largely driven by the uncertainty generated by US trade policy. At the regional level, significant declines were observed in European ports, wiping out the gains accumulated in previous months. China, for its part, experienced a slight decline, with the index falling to 151.2 points (from 151.3).

According to Torsten Schmidt, head of economic analysis at RWI, ‘the constant manipulation of the tariff regime by the US continues to put pressure on global trade. Although the recent agreement between the US and China, reached at the end of June, could offer some temporary relief, the overall environment remains marked by deep uncertainty.’

This behaviour of the index therefore occurs in a global context marked by trade tensions, incipient overcapacity and signs of weakening demand. According to Linerlytica, during the first half of 2025, global container traffic showed remarkable resilience, with aggregate growth of 5.3%, driven by almost all regions except Oceania. However, the outlook for the second half of the year is less encouraging. The entry into force of new tariffs by the United States is beginning to affect transport volumes, especially on the west transatlantic route, where imports from Europe — which grew by 8% in the first half — could fall by more than 10% in the coming months.

This pressure on demand is combined with a 16% year-on-year increase in capacity deployed on this route, creating a scenario of oversupply that is already impacting rates. In fact, the SCFI (Shanghai Containerised Freight Index) has fallen for seven consecutive weeks, reflecting a general cooling of the market.

During July, global port congestion remained at high levels, with no clear signs of operational improvement. According to data from Linerlytica, the volume of capacity retained in ports reached 2.53 million TEU in week 28 of 2025, representing approximately 7.8% of the global container ship fleet. This figure is slightly below the peaks observed in the first half of the year, but reflects persistent saturation at major logistics hubs. Congestion continues to particularly affect ports in Southeast Asia, the Indian subcontinent and some European terminals, where waiting times and ship turnover continue to be affected by high demand, route diversions and imbalances in supply chains. Although no significant increases have been recorded, the capacity released continues to be quickly absorbed by the market, preventing effective normalisation of the global port system.

Despite this more complex environment, the global container ship fleet continues to operate at virtually full capacity. In mid-July, according to Alphaliner data, there were only 67 inactive ships, equivalent to around 160,000 TEU, representing just 0.5% of the estimated global capacity of 32 million TEU. This low proportion confirms that there is no structural inactivity in the sector: immobilisations are mainly due to operational causes, such as shipyard stays or service changes. However, specific adjustments are beginning to be seen on certain routes, such as the cancellation of transpacific services or the relocation of ships to more profitable traffic.

At the same time, new orders remain high. As of July, 271 new container ships had been ordered, representing an additional 2.6 million TEU. This strong pace of contracting could continue to upset the balance between supply and demand in the short and medium term, especially if demand does not recover at the expected rate.

In the energy sector, the average price of Brent crude oil fell by 0.56% in July to $71.04 per barrel, compared to $71.44 in June. The marine fuel market also reflected this downward trend: the average price of VLSFO (Very Low Sulphur Fuel Oil) in the world’s 20 main ports fell by 2.15%, from $562.6 in June to $550.5 in July, according to data from Ship & Bunker.

While waiting for a possible stabilisation of the markets, the sector continues to operate at high levels of efficiency, although with growing signs of operational stress and pressure on tariffs. The combination of moderate demand, persistent congestion and new capacity to be incorporated suggests that the balance between supply and demand could remain fragile in the short term.