Fundación Valenciaport

The Valencia Containerised Freight Index (VCFI) begins the year with a monthly decrease of 2.74%, standing at 2,019.69 points, confirming a trend of moderation in recent freight rate developments. Despite this adjustment, the index maintains cumulative growth of 101.97% since the series began in 2018.

By geographic area, the Western Mediterranean recorded a positive monthly variation of 9.20%, reaching 3,359.86 points, increasing its cumulative growth to 235.99% since 2018. In contrast, the Far East experienced a monthly drop of 25.73%, standing at 1,496.22 points, although it still maintains a cumulative increase of 49.62% since 2018.

Geopolitical Context and Global Trade at the Start of 2026

The beginning of 2026 occurs in an international scenario marked by persistent geopolitical tensions, risks in strategic maritime routes—especially along the Asia–Europe corridor—and a more restrictive trade policy environment, linked to the protectionist shift driven by the Donald Trump administration, which has raised tariffs on multiple trade partners and increased regulatory uncertainty in international exchanges.

At the same time, the reconfiguration of global supply chains continues toward models with greater geographic diversification (nearshoring and friendshoring), altering the patterns of trade flows and the relative weight of specific maritime routes. All of this translates into more moderate international trade growth, although with varying performance across geographic regions.

Indeed, the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook (January 2026) points to global growth of around 3.3% in 2026, uneven across regions and without a strong rebound in trade flows.

This general macroeconomic framework is reflected in the evolution of container maritime trade, which is a direct indicator of global goods trade. According to the RWI/ISL Container Throughput Index, global container traffic closed 2025 with a slight uptick, reaching 143.2 points in December, confirming a moderate recovery of global volumes despite trade uncertainty. However, performance was uneven by region: Chinese ports showed a significant increase in throughput, while the Nordrange index (Northern Europe) declined, reflecting weaker dynamism in the European environment at the end of the year.

Other Factors Influencing Freight Rate Developments

In addition to the macroeconomic and geopolitical context, freight rate trends in January 2026 have been influenced by several specific factors in the container shipping market. On one hand, the entry of new capacity into the global fleet during 2025–2026 has increased space supply, exerting downward pressure on rates, especially on long-haul trades. At the same time, capacity management by shipping lines– through alliances, blank sailings, and service adjustments- continues to modulate effective supply according to demand, influencing price formation.

In this supply context, effective fleet availability remains high. According to Alphaliner, at the beginning of 2026, the global container fleet is almost fully employed, with commercially inactive capacity at very low levels (around 0.8% of total global capacity). However, effective available capacity is still affected by route deviations caused by the situation in the Red Sea. Although some carriers have started to reintroduce limited services via Suez, a significant portion of high-capacity services continues to divert around the Cape of Good Hope, absorbing capacity due to longer transit times. A broader return to the Suez Canal would free up capacity currently tied up by deviations, with potential additional downward pressure on freight rates, unless matched by a parallel increase in demand.

Adding to this are operating and energy costs. Although fuel prices and related costs have been more stable than in previous years, expenses related to insurance and route deviations continue to affect shipping lines’ cost structures, and indirectly, freight rate formation.

Finally, the seasonal effect of Chinese New Year introduces a recurring pattern at the beginning of the year. In the weeks prior to the holiday, there is typically an advance in exports from Asia, which can generate temporary demand peaks and short-term rate increases. However, after the holiday, the production slowdown in China and other Southeast Asian countries significantly reduces export activity, resulting in lower demand pressure on Asia-Europe and Asia-Mediterranean routes. This seasonal pattern helps explain the freight rate correction from the Far East observed in January, in line with the monthly index decline for that area, and reinforces the interpretation of a seasonal adjustment in addition to structural market factors.