Fundación Valenciaport

In June 2025, the Valencia Containerised Freight Index (VCFI) recorded an increase of 0.41%, reaching 2,172.73 points. Since the start of the series in 2018, the index has risen by 117.27%. However, not all markets evolved homogeneously: the Western Mediterranean sub-index declined by 10.14 % to 2,703.56 points (accumulating a growth of 170.36 %), while the Far East sub-index fell by 15.22 % to 2,071.76 points, although it maintains a cumulative rise of 101.78 %.

This performance of the index has occurred in an environment of high utilisation of the world containership fleet, with tight capacity supply due to various operational, geopolitical and commercial factors. According to Alphaliner, during June the number of commercially idle vessels remained at exceptionally low levels: just 70 units, equivalent to 185,157 TEU, representing only 0.6% of the estimated 32 million TEU global capacity. This historic low reflects that the industry is operating at near ‘full capacity’, with downtime attributed to one-off causes such as maintenance or reassignment of service, rather than to a fall in demand.

Part of this pressure on tonnage supply is explained by strong demand on the transpacific routes, driven by the temporary suspension of tariffs between the United States and China. With uncertainty over their possible reactivation in August, many shippers have opted to bring forward shipments, leading to increased activity. In addition to this, diversions forced by the crisis in the Red Sea and increasing waiting times in key ports are reinforcing the intensive utilisation of the fleet. In this context, demand for large vessels is particularly high, with virtually no units over 12,500 TEU idle.

Despite these stress factors, overall port congestion has shown slight signs of improvement. According to Linerlytica data, the volume of vessels detained in port went from 2.56 million TEUs in the week of 20 May (equivalent to 8 % of total capacity) to 2.41 million TEUs in the week of 25 June, representing 7.5 % of the world fleet. However, this slight improvement has not led to a relaxation of the market, as the freed capacity has been quickly absorbed by the high overall demand.

In addition to these operational factors, developments in the energy market are also putting pressure on shipping costs. In June, the average price of Brent crude oil increased by 10.85% to USD 71.44 per barrel, compared to USD 64.45 in May. In parallel, the price of VLSFO (Very Low Sulphur Fuel Oil) – the most commonly used fuel by the fleet since IMO regulations came into force – also rose by 5.21%, from $534.77 in May to $562.63 in June, according to Ship&Bunker. This upward trend increases shipping lines’ operating costs and could have an impact on freight levels if prolonged over time.

The dynamism of global trade is also reflected in leading indicators. Although the latest RWI/ISL index data, produced by the Leibniz Institute for Economic Research (RWI) and the Institute for Maritime Economics and Logistics (ISL), is still for the month of May, it provides a useful insight into recent trends. In that reading, the index registered a slight improvement from 137.9 to 138.3 seasonally adjusted points, confirming the resilience of international maritime trade despite tariff tensions. However, the regional analysis shows significant differences: US West Coast ports, closely linked to trade with China, suffered a notable drop in traffic; Chinese ports also experienced a slight contraction (from 156.7 to 156.5 points), while European ports showed a significant increase. This evolution could reflect a conjunctural change in logistics flows, with some Chinese exporters diverting their shipments to Europe to circumvent the new US trade barriers. However, these dynamics may have started to reverse in June, as suggested by the increasing pressure on capacity on transpacific routes due to the advance of cargoes.

Overall, the current container shipping landscape combines high demand, tight capacity, geopolitical tensions and cost pressures, creating a highly volatile environment. While the industry is responding efficiently to these challenges, doubts remain about the sustainability of this balance in the short to medium term, especially if demand weakens or operating conditions normalise.