Fundación Valenciaport

In April 2025, the Valencia Containerised Freight Index (VCFI) recorded an increase of 9.41% over the previous month, reaching 2,243.84 points. This increase reverses the downward trend observed in March and places the cumulative growth since the beginning of the series in 2018 at 124.38%. For its part, the Western Mediterranean sub-index experienced a notable increase of 24.68%, standing at 2,811.21 points, with a cumulative growth of 181.12%. Likewise, the Far East sub-index showed an upward trend, with an increase of 9.04% and a value of 2,317.10 points, reaching a cumulative growth of 131.71%.

In comparison with other international indices, it can be seen that while the VCFI experienced a significant rise in April, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) recorded a slight correction of 3.5% in the third week of the month. This difference in performance can be attributed to the nature and coverage of each index. The SCFI, which is a weekly index, reflects spot export rates from Shanghai, with a high sensitivity to immediate market variations. The VCFI, on the other hand, is monthly and reflects the evolution of export contracts from Valencia to multiple destinations, offering a more structured view with less short-term volatility. These methodological differences naturally generate a certain mismatch between the two indicators. However, it should be noted that, in the medium term, both indices tend to show a convergent evolution, as they are conditioned by common trends in the global logistics chain.

This performance of the VCFI in April takes place in a context of operational stability in the maritime sector. According to Alphaliner data, the inactive containership fleet remained at around 0.7% of global capacity, representing 67 vessels and approximately 195,000 TEUs out of service. This low availability reinforces the balance in the market and contributes to sustaining tariff levels. At the same time, the energy market showed some moderation: the price of Brent crude oil fell below USD 63 per barrel, while the cost of VLSFO marine fuel fell to USD 521 per ton in the main hubs, according to Ship & Bunker data. This development represents a partial relief for shipping operating costs, although freight rates continue to be influenced by the dynamics between supply and demand on the various routes.

Regarding the general economic environment, the latest World Trade Organization (WTO) Goods Trade Barometer came in at 102.8 points, indicating that world trade in goods remains slightly above trend. However, the WTO has warned that uncertainty surrounding trade policies and the possible imposition of new tariffs could limit the expansion of international trade in the coming months. In fact, in April, the organization revised downward its forecasts for 2025, projecting a 0.2% drop in global merchandise volumes, compared to the 2.7% growth initially forecast.

Along the same lines, the RWI/ISL index, which evaluates container traffic in the world’s major ports, reflected a significant drop in global maritime trade in March. According to the latest estimate published on April 25 by the Leibniz Institute for Economic Research (RWI) and the Institute for Maritime Economics and Logistics (ISL), the index fell to 135.3 points (seasonally adjusted), down from a revised 137.6 points the previous month. This decline, after a dynamic start to the year, would be linked to an anticipation effect on the part of operators in the face of the announcements of new tariff measures in the United States, which would have concentrated a large part of the movements in January and February. The report points out that this slowdown in port traffic is generalized and affects both European ports – where the North Range Index fell from 112.8 to 112.1 points – and Chinese ports, which recorded a drop from 157.8 to 154.8 points. The impact of these trade policies is particularly noticeable in trade between China and the United States, which could continue to show pressure in the coming months.

In this context, the evolution of the VCFI during April can be understood as the result of specific operational and commercial factors on certain routes, within a global scenario still conditioned by volatility. The variations observed are the result of adjustments in the capacity offered, strategic decisions by operators and a demand environment subject to regulatory and economic changes.